NFL Week 5 Hit or Miss Bets

5 big picks for Week 5. Let’s make it 5 winners.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals 

Spread: Bengals -3.5

O/U: 47.5

This is my favorite game for the Week 5 slate. I think the Cardinals are going to cover and ultimately win this one. The Bengals are a really, really bad football team that I just don’t see them winning this game. Cincinnati was only able to score 3 points against a terrible Steelers team, and that’s largely because they have virtually no running game. Joe Mixon is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry because their offensive line couldn’t stop a high school team.

I don’t think the Cardinals are a much better team by any means, but they do have more players with big play ability. Kyler Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, and David Johnson are all guys that can have a big play at any given moment. The Bengals don’t have those players, especially with AJ Green and John Ross III not playing. I have to take the Cardinals to cover and win outright. 

MY PICKS

Spread: Cardinals +3.5

O/U: Under 47.5

Winners: Cardinals +135

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints 

Spread: Saints -3.0

O/U: 46.0

As much as I want to believe Jamies Winston and the Bucs can keep up the level of play they showed last week against the Rams, I don’t think their success will continue in the Big Easy. New Orleans has a very good defense that held the Cowboys to just 9 points last week, and the Bucs offense doesn’t even come close to Dallas.

On offense, Teddy Bridgewater continues to prove that he is a very good quarterback. With every week he plays, he gets better and more comfortable. Now that he’s started for several weeks in a row, I think he will have a huge game in the Superdome. I think the Saints are going to cover the 3 points quite easily, so much so that I will actually be taking an alternative line at -5.5. 

MY PICKS

Spread: Saints -3.0

O/U: Under 46.0

Winners: Saints -155

Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants 

Spread: Vikings -5.0

O/U: 43.5

This is the kind of game when I like Kirk Cousins. A 1 o’clock matchup against a bad defensive team that he can take advantage of. Some people might be a little hesitant to take the Vikings at -5.0 now that Stefon Diggs in not playing, but I really don’t think that will matter in the end. The Vikings still have the 8 best players in this game, and their combined talents should be too much for the Giants.

After a strong debut, Daniel Jones returned to Earth and didn’t look great last week, throwing his first 2 (nearly 3) interceptions of his career, and I think more will follow this week. The Vikings defense is very good and will disrupt Jones all day. Minnesota has allowed the 6th fewest yards per game to opposing offenses so far and should force the Giants to have trouble moving the ball all day. I like the Vikings a lot this week.  

MY PICKS

Spread: Vikings -5.0

O/U: Under 43.5

Winners: Vikings -220

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys 

Spread: Cowboys -3.5

O/U: 47.0

As much as I do like the Cowboys this season, I think Aaron Rodgers is really starting to click with his offense this year. And as we’ve witnessed in the past, when Rodgers is playing well, he is nearly impossible to stop. But in addition to Green Bay’s offense, Rodgers finally has himself a legit defense.

The Packers pass defense is elite, ranking 3rd in the league in passing yards allowed per game at 188.0 YPG. Having this secondary gives their defense the luxury of playing man defense and being able to put extra men in the box to try and stop Zeke. I think the Packers defense is going to have a real coming out party and show the league what they can do by keeping this Cowboys team in check. I like the Packers to cover and ultimately win the game.

MY PICKS

Spread: Packers +3.5

O/U: Under 47.0

Winners: Packers +150

Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -5.0

O/U: 46.5

The Browns looked really good last week against a strong Ravens defense and should to be able to hang in there with the 49ers. But even though I think the Browns are going to cover the spread, I think San Fran is still going to win the game.

The 49ers are coming off a bye week, and if you give Kyle Shannahan an extra week to prepare, he is going to come up with a great game plan to beat you. Right now, SF has a top-5 offense AND defense when it comes to total yards and are still 1 of 3 undefeated teams left in the league. But again, although I think they are going to win this week, I have the Browns covering. And again, just to be clear: Browns to cover, 49ers to win.

MY PICKS

Spread: Browns +5.0

O/U: Over 

Winners: 49ers -200

BONUS: My Top Player Bets on Thrive Fantasy

Keenan Allen (Los Angeles Chargers): Under 101.5 Rec YDS

DeAndre Hopkins (Houston Texans): Over 87.5 Rec YDS

Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals): Over 5.5 Receptions

Betting mastermind. Didn't have the height or talent for sports but I can talk and pick them like a champ.

Twitter: @MatthewSulla