NBA Hit or Miss February 11th, 2019

Back to back nights of 2-1, lets keep this up…

Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls

Spread: Bucks -11.0

O/U: 227.5

As of right now, it’s unclear if Giannis will be playing tonight in Chicago. And yet, the Bulls are so bad it may not matter if Giannis plays. Chicago is suffering through one of the worst seasons in franchise history. A few stats back up how much of a mismatch this is: the Bulls are ranked 26th in rebounding, at 42.0 per game, while the Bucks lead the league with 48.0 rebounds per game. Winning the boards in the NBA is like winning at the line of scrimmage in football. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA with a true shooting percentage of 58.4% (2nd), just behind the Golden State Warriors. Giannis is really making a case for himself to win the MVP this year. He is averaging 27.0 points, 12.5 rebounds, and an amazing 58% shooting from the field. If Giannis plays tonight, this will be a blowout and the Bucks will cover the spread very easily.

MY PICKS:

Spread: Bucks -11.0

O/U: Over 227.5

Winner: Bucks

Photo Source: OnMilwaukee

Photo Source: OnMilwaukee

Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets

Spread: Rockets -11.0

O/U: 225.0

Dallas are at the end of their back to back after finishing a very close game against the Trail Blazers last night. I never like betting on teams who are playing in a back to back so I am going to take the Rockets tonight. The Rockets make the most 3 pointers per game in the NBA at 15.4. They have been very good all season at not turning the ball over, only doing so around 13.2 times per game, good enough for 9th. Meanwhile, the Mavs turn the ball over quite often: around 14.7 times which is ranked 25th. It should come as no surprise that Houston has one of the best offensive ratings in the NBA. The Rockets rank second with an offensive rating of 114.7. Houston also enjoys a true shooting percentage of 57.6%, good enough for 5th in the league. I see the Rockets covering this one just slightly.

MY PICKS:

Spread: Rockets -11.0

O/U: 225.0

Winner: Rockets

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Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets

Spread: Nuggets -9.5

O/U: 214.5

Another team coming off a back to back is the Miami Heat, who are recovering from a heart breaker against the defending champs the Golden State Warriors. The Heat had a 4 point lead with 30 seconds left. After coming off a hard loss like that, I don’t see the Heat coming out tonight with a lot of fire. The Nuggets are one of the better teams in the NBA. They’re shooting the 8th best in the league with a team field goal percentage of 48% and an effective shooting percentage of 53.4% (tied for 7th). Whiteside vs Jokic will be one of my favorite matchups to watch this year. Jokic, Denver’s 6’ 10’’ center, is averaging 20 pts, 10 reb, and 7 ast so far. He should win this battle because he is the better overall player; Jokic has made a strong case for MVP this season and I believe he will win the award in the next 3 years. I think the Nuggets will take advantage of a tired Heat team and cover the spread. Can’t forget about the Denver altitude as well.

MY PICKS:

Spread: Nuggets -9.5

O/U: Under 214.5

Winner: Nuggets

Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing | USA TODAY Sports

Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing | USA TODAY Sports

Betting mastermind. Didn't have the height or talent for sports but I can talk and pick them like a champ.

Twitter: @MatthewSulla