NBA Hit or Miss March 4th, 2019

Gambling is a lot like playing quarterback: forget the bad plays and focus on the next.

Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets

Spread: Nets -5.0

O/U:224.0

The Dallas Mavericks are an absolutely pathetic 6-24 away from American Airlines Arena this season, which is tied for the second worst road record in the NBA. The Nets, meanwhile, are 18-16 at home. Interestingly enough the Nets have a losing record against the spread at home this season, going 16-18. The Mavs are one of the feistiest teams on the road having a .500 record against the spread, 15-15. Since we play the spread here at Straight Up Sports that is the record I care the most about. There aren’t major differences between these two teams. They shoot around the same percentage from the field and from behind the arc. Both average around 45 rebound per game, including 10 offensive boards. Nothing leads me to believe the Nets will cover the spread tonight, but based on the poor road record of the Mavs, Brooklyn should still win the game. Take the Mavs to cover the spread, but the Nets to win.

MY PICKS:

Spread: Mavericks +5.0

O/U: Over 224.0

Winner: Nets

Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs

Spread: Spurs -1.0

O/U: 228.0

The Nuggets have been a better team all season, but the Spurs are playing great basketball as of late, riding a 2 game winning streak and an outstanding 24-7 home record this year. The Nuggets have a fairly average road record at just 15-14. The number are similar when looking at the spread. The Spurs are 20-11 at home against the spread, while the Nuggets are 11-18 on the road. Having released Pau Gasol earlier this week, the Spurs lack a big body to match up against Nikola Jokic. To make matters worse, the Nuggets are also the league's best rebounding team. Rebounding will be the biggest disadvantage for San Antonio, but they can fall back on being a superior shooting team. San Antonio is fifth in the NBA in shooting percentage, first in 3 point field goal percentage, and first from the free throw line. I like the Spurs against the 2nd place Nuggets because of their great shooting and the obvious home court advantage. Take the Spurs spread and moneyline.

MY PICKS:

Spread: Spurs -1.0

O/U: Under 228.0

Winner: Spurs

New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz

Spread: Jazz -10.5

O/U: 230.5

Rudy Gobert has been playing great basketball lately, helping the Jazz shoot up the western conference standings. Utah has won 4 straight games and 7 of the last 10. New Orleans will once again be playing without superstar Anthony Davis, leaving a huge hole to fill in the paint. New Orleans are 11-14 against the spread on the road, which is well below 50%. Utah is 21-10 at home ATS this year. Thanks to the elite defensive play of Gobert and co., the Jazz find themselves tied for the 2nd best defensive rating in the NBA at 106.0. Without Anthony Davis on the court, the Pelicans offensive rating drops 6.9 points. That is a lot of production to fill for Jrue Holiday and Julius Randle. Meanwhile, Donovan Mitchell is having a great sophomore season for the Jazz, averaging 23 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists. I see him scoring over 30 points tonight in a blow out. I am taking the Jazz to cover and win the game.

MY PICKS:

Spread: Jazz -10.5

O/U: Over 230.5

Winner: Jazz

Betting mastermind. Didn't have the height or talent for sports but I can talk and pick them like a champ.