MLB Hit or Miss April 25th, 2019

The Red Sox are on a 1 game win streak, don't let them get too hot.

Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds

Starting Pitchers: Julio Teheran vs Luis Castillo

O/U: 9.0

This series is tied 1 game a piece and tonight I'm leaning towards the home team. Luis Castillo is taking the mound and he is absolutely on fire. Castillo hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of his starts this season, and as a result he has a 1.47 ERA to show for it. That’s great news for the Reds because they have been one of the worst offensive teams this season, ranking 25th in runs per game (3.5) and 30th in hits per game (6.4). If Luis can keep the Braves from getting baserunners, all Cincy needs to do is score 3 runs, which is right around their average for the season. I like for the Reds to win tonight and take the series at home.

MY PICKS

O/U: Under 9.0

Winners: Reds -138

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

Starting Pitchers: Caleb Smith vs Aaron Nola

O/U: 7.5

Although not off to a hot start, I don't regularly bet against Aaron Nola. He has some of the best stuff in the league and against a sorry team like the Marlins, he should be able to rebound. The Phillies are coming off a win last night against the Mets and are looking to extend their lead in a very tight NL East race. The Phillies are a top 10 team in terms of hits, averaging 8.8 per game, meanwhile the Marlins are near the bottom only averaging 7.0 (27th). As you’d expect, no hits lead to no runs, and the Marlins are really good at not scoring runs. Miami currently ranks dead last in runs per game, averaging a laughable 2.7 runs. That is a number you can score by accident by drawing a few walks. I like the Phillies a lot here and would even urge you to take the spread at -1.5 with odds of -105.

MY PICKS

O/U: Under 7.5

Winners: Phillies -210

New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels

Starting Pitchers: Masahiro Tanaka vs Trevor Cahill

O/U: 8.0

The Yankees are almost unrecognizable with all of the injuries they’re nursing. But somehow they are finding a way to make it work. They are currently top 10 in both runs scored per game (5.3) and runs allowed per game (4.0). Los Angeles ranks 20th in both those same areas (4.4 runs scored and 5.0 runs allowed) and have looked exactly like the team everyone expected. The Angels are a one trick pony, even with the GOAT Mike Trout, and even if that is the greatest trick in the history of Major League Baseball, it's not enough to win games. With Tanaka pitching well this season with a 2.76 ERA, I don't see how the Angles will be able to put enough runs on the board to beat the Yankees tonight. Cahill hasn't pitched past the 5th innings in his past two starts and has given up 4 and 5 runs in those same games. I like the Yankees to complete the sweep tonight in LA.

MY PICKS

O/U: Over 8.0

Winners: Yankees -110

Betting mastermind. Didn't have the height or talent for sports but I can talk and pick them like a champ.

Twitter: @MatthewSulla